[Rosebowl] Stanford

gsfisher at gci.net gsfisher at gci.net
Sun Oct 16 08:00:51 PDT 2011



Stanford looks unbeatable. But they have not played anyone. Their
opponents are a combined 14-24 this year. Incredibly, the numbers show
Washngton and Stanford played just about the same game against Colorado.
We had 562 yards against Colorado (295 rushing and 267 passing).
Stanford had 553 yards (161 rushing and 392 passing). We allowed 269
yards (62 rushing and 207 passing). They allowed 264 yards (60 rushing
and 204 passing). We scored 52 points. They scored 48. We allowed 24
points. They only allowed 7 points. Price was 21/28 for 257 yards a
75% completion rate and a 199.2 QB rating. Luck was 26/33 for 370 yards
a 78% completion rate and a 196.9 QB rating. Polk gained 117 yards on 18
carries (a 6.5 yards per carry average). Their TB gained 61 yards on 9
carries (6.8 average). We converted 8/10 third downs. Stanford only
converted 4/10 third downs. We had 34 first downs. Stanford had 28.
We allowed 20 first downs. Stanford only allowed 11.

In my non-expert opinion, the comparison as to how each team played
against Colorado is fair because we played Colorado back to back at
home. We each saw pretty much the same team.

Season-long, Stanford is statistically better than UW in just about
every category. Offensively, they are averaging 45 points a game, 485
yards, 1,476 passing and 1,042 rushing and are 51% third down
conversion. UW is averaging 37 points a game, 419 yards, 1,824 passing
and 1,090 rushing and also has a 51% third down conversion rate.

Defensively, Stanford only gives up 11 points a game, 297 yards, 1,412
passing and only 357 rushing all year. UW gives up 28 points a game,
400 yards, 1,822 passing and 582 rushing.

Price uis 118/170 a 69% completion rate for 1,466 yards, 21 TDs and 4
INTs for a 177.9 QB rating
Luck is 129/181, a 71% completion rate for 1,719 yards 18 TDs and 3 INTs
for a 180.6 QB rating

Polk has 711 yards on 134 carries for an average of 118.5 per game and
5.3 per carry
Taylor has 547 yards on 101 carries for an average of 91.2 per game and
5.4 per carry.

Although Stanford's opponents are only 14-24, Washington's opponents are
only 18-20.

My concern with this game is that our weaknesses don't match up well.
Stanford is a pass-emphasis team with excellent tight ends. They have
an aggressive defense. We have no real pass defense and I'm not sure
how we will contain their tight ends. Our linebackers are young and
inexperienced. Stanford has a 14 game winning streak and is playing at
home. I believe our offense will be able to score, but we will have to
be close to perfect to keep pace with Stanford. I expect Stanford to
score nearly every time that they have the ball. Luck has only been
sacked maybe twice all year. We have generated not much by way of a
pass rush and we give up scores of yards through the air.

I think the Huskies actually have a decent shot at beating Stanford.
Washington will have to collect some turnovers and also get a few
(multiple) big plays on returns. Also, we've been in close games on
the road against top flight teams and have done well. Stanford has not
done well in close games. I suspect Stanford will open as an 18 point
favorite, perhaps more.

Last year's loss in Seattle was the worst game I have ever watched live
as a Husky fan. It was wet and cold. Stanford dominated us in every
aspect of the game. It was miserable.

Prediction later in the week

Go Dawgs

Gregory
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